My Interview with AusBiz TV
A quick summary of my wide-ranging conversation with a leading Australian business channel.
At the crack of dawn on Thursday, I had a wide-ranging conversation with Juliette Saly of AusBiz TV, Australia's only live streaming channel dedicated to business and finance news. Apologies I’m glistening real up close, but (i) it’s the crack of dawn, (ii) it’s warm, and (iii) I have zero “camera and cinematography sense”.
A lot of topics were covered in the course of this quick conversation with Juliette. Interested readers out the entire interview for free here. However (depending on region), you might need to sign in using either Google or your socials.
The overall roundup of market matters discussed:
While Alphabet and Meta have had disappointing earnings, this is primarily attributable to ad spends declining as companies pull back from overspending. While consumer spending trends in unit terms is lower, they trend higher in dollar terms than in prior years (in a sign of a continuing affordability crisis). This is buttressed by the cool-offs in higher-ticket long-term equity investments like housing.
Middle Eastern tensions have ben prevalent since the ‘90s and have been "factored out" in most market estimations. Despite production cuts by OPEC+, oil prices hover at around the $90 level with no significant pillars or lifts evident.
While US-China tensions will likely continue, 2024 will likely see some form of an "economic détente" without tensions boiling over significantly. As it stands the consumer-producer relationship between the U.S. and China will serve as a tension dampener in many ways.
While the "Magnificent Seven" might show overall disappointing results, it's key to note that these companies continue to retain high investor confidence since they're deemed more "survivable" than others. With present trends, the S&P 500 can be expected to close the year somewhere around 4,000-4,100 mark while the Nasdaq-100 can close at around 12,000-12,500 mark. The Magnificent Seven can be expected to continue driving market directionality.
2023 has been a solid year for the Indian equity market with strong outperformance all around. This is "India's Year" and will likely be "India's Decade", with massive outlays in investments and so forth in the course of a gigantic economic build-out. However, it will be a long time before India can be considered a "substitute" for the world's dependence on China. However, a point to note: Indian equity trajectories are known to be more disciplined than than that of U.S. equities; it bears keeping in mind that valuations in the former won't be as stretched as in the latter. (Note: this was covered in an earlier Substack article)
India has been covered a lot over the current year. Click here to read more on overall macroeconomic trends that point to the coming few years becoming “New India’s” decade. Next, in light of a big announcement by GE Aerospace, click here for a full overview of how the race for making a jet engine in India is shaping up. After that, click here to to read about India’s burgeoning edge in the AI race that could propel the country into the Top 3 podium soon. And finally, click here to learn how an “e-commerce democratization” exercise in India is laying the groundwork for “500 unicorns” to bloom in India.
Incidentally, an earlier 2-part series laid out the history of and background surrounding the Indian military aircraft industry. Click here for Part 1 and here for Part 2.
For a “Big Read” on other matters, the ever-popular “Dharma” series traces the evolution of Eastern faith and philosophy. Here’s Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5, followed by the ancillary Part 6 and Part 7 discussing Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s spiritual history. Also, click here for a list of all articles published.